Natalie Linton

Natalie Linton

Infectious disease epidemiologist

Publications

Peer-reviewed publications | Preprints | Government reports | Other scientific writing | Book contributions

Peer-reviewed publications

2024

  1. Akhmetzhanov AR, Lee HJ, Jung S-m, Linton NM, Yang Y, Yuan B, Nishiura H. Reconstruction and analysis of the transmission network of African swine fever in People’s Republic of China, August 2018–September 2019. Epidemiology & Infection. 2024;152(e27). doi:10.1017/S0950268824000086

    2022

  2. Linton NM, Akhmetzhanov AR, Nishiura H. Correlation between times to SARS-CoV-2 symptom onset and secondary transmission undermines epidemic control efforts. Epidemics. 2022;41(100655). doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100655

  3. Linton NM, Lovell-Read FA, Southall E, Lee H, Akhmetzhanov AR, Thompson RN, Nishiura H. When do epidemics end? Scientific insights from mathematical modelling studies. Centaurus. 2022;64(1) 31-60. doi:10.1484/J.CNT.5.130125

  4. Akhmetzhanov AR, Cheng H-Y, Linton NM, Ponce L, Jian S-W, Lin H-H. Transmission dynamics and effectiveness of control measures during a surge of COVID-19 cases in Taiwan, April–August 2021. Emerg Infect Dis. 2022;28(10):2051-2059.

  5. Kobayashi T, Yoshii K, Linton NM, Suzuki M, Nishiura H. Age dependence of the natural history of infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2): An analysis of Diamond Princess data. Int J Infect Dis. 2022;115:109-115. doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2021.12.319

  6. Hayashi K, Kayano T, Anzai A, Fujimoto M, Linton NM, Sasanami M, Suzuki A, Kobayashi T, Otani K, Yamauchi M, Suzuki M, Nishiura H. Assessing public health and social measures against COVID-19 in Japan from March to June 2021. Frontiers in Medicine. 2022; 9:937732. doi:10.3389/fmed.2022.937732

  7. Miyama T, Jung S-m, Hayashi K, Anzai A, Kinoshita R, Kobayashi T, Linton NM, Suzuki A, Yang Y, Yuan B, Kayano T, Akhmetzhanov AR, Nishiura H. Phenomenological and mechanistic models for predicting early transmission data of COVID-19. Math Biosci Eng. 2022;19(2) 2043-2055. doi:10.3934/mbe.2022096

    2021

  8. Linton NM, Jung S-m, Nishiura H. Not all fun and games: Potential incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections during the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games. Math Biosci Eng. 2021;18(6)9685-9696. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2021474.

  9. Linton NM, Akhmetzhanov AR, Nishiura H. Localized end-of-outbreak determination for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): examples from clusters in Japan. Int J Infect Dis. 2021;105:286-292. doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2021.02.106

  10. Akhmetzhanov AR, Mizumoto K, Jung S-m, Linton NM, Omori R, Nishiura H. Estimation of the actual incidence of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in emergent hotspots: the example of Hokkaido, Japan during February-March 2020. J Clin Med. 2021;10(11), 2392. doi:10.3390/jcm10112392

    2020

  11. Linton NM, Kobayashi T, Yang Y, Hayashi K, Akhmetzhanov AR, Jung S-m, Yuan B, Kinoshita R, Nishiura H. Incubation period and other epidemiological characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus infections with right truncation: A statistical analysis of publicly available case data. J Clin Med. 2020;9(2)538. doi:10.3390/jcm9020538

  12. Linton NM, Keita M, Moitinho de Almeida M, Gil-Cuesta J, Guha-Sapir, D, Nishiura H, van Loenhout JAF. Impact of mass vaccination campaigns on measles transmission during an outbreak in Guinea, 2017. J Infect. 2020;80(3):1-7. doi:10.1016/j.jinf.2019.11.023

  13. Linton NM, DeBolt C, Newman LP, Tasslimi A, Matheson J. Mortality rate and causes of death among refugees resettled in Washington State, 2006–2016. J Immigr Minor Heal. 2020;22:3-9. doi:10.1007/s10903-019-00949-8

  14. Nishiura H, Linton NM, Akhmetzhanov AR. Serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections. Int J Infect Dis. 2020;93:284-286. doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.060

  15. Nishiura H, Linton NM, Akhmetzhanov AR. Initial cluster of novel coronavirus (2019‐nCoV) infections in Wuhan, China is consistent with substantial human‐to‐human transmission. J Clin Med. 2020;9(2):488. doi:10.3390/jcm9020488

  16. Oshitani H, The Expert Members of the National COVID-19 Cluster Taskforce at The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan. Cluster-based approach to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) response in Japan, February to April 2020. Japan J Infect Dis. 2020;73(6):491–493. doi:10.7883/yoken.JJID.2020.363

  17. Anzai A, Kobayashi T, Linton NM, Kinoshita R, Hayashi K, Suzuki A, Yang Y, Jung S-m, Miyama T, Akhmetzhanov AR, Nishiura H. Assessing the impact of reduced travel on exportation dynamics of novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19). J Clin Med. 2020;9(2):601. doi:10.3390/jcm9020601

  18. Kobayashi T, Jung S-m, Linton NM, Kinoshita R, Hayashi K, Miyama T, Anzai A, Yang Y, Yuan B, Akhmetzhanov AR, Suzuki A, Nishiura H. Communicating the risk of death from novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). J Clin Med. 2020;9(2):580. doi:10.3390/jcm9020580

  19. Nishiura H, Jung S-m, Linton NM, Kinoshita R, Yang Y, Hayashi K, Kobayashi T, Yuan B, Akhmetzhanov AR. The extent of transmission of novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China, 2020. J Clin Med. 2020;9(2):330. doi:10.3390/jcm9020330

  20. Jung S-m, Akhmetzhanov AR, Hayashi K, Linton NM, Yang Y, Yuan B, Kobayashi T, Kinoshita R, Nishiura H. Real-time estimation of the risk of death from novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection: Inference using exported cases. J Clin Med. 2020;9(2):523. doi: 10.3390/jcm9020523

  21. Kinoshita R, Anzai A, Jung S-m, Linton NM, Miyama T, Kobayashi T, Hayashi K, Suzuki A, Yang Y, Akhmetzhanov AR, Nishiura H. Containment, contact tracing and asymptomatic transmission of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19): A modelling study. J Clin Med. 2020;9(10):3125. doi:10.3390/jcm9103125

  22. Jung S-m, Kinoshita R, Thompson R, Linton NM, Yang Y, Akhmetzhanov AR, Nishiura H. Epidemiological identification of a novel pathogen in real time: Analysis of the atypical pneumonia outbreak in Wuhan, China, 2019–2020. J Clin Med. 2020;9(3):637. doi: 10.3390/jcm9030637

  23. Nishiura H, Kobayashi T, Yang Y, Hayashi K, Miyama T, Kinoshita R, Linton NM, Jung S-m, Yuan B, Suzuki A, Akhmetzhanov AR. The rate of underascertainment of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection: Estimation using Japanese passengers data on evacuation flights. J Clin Med. 2020;9(2):419. doi:10.3390/jcm9020419

  24. Kamiya H, Fujikura H, Doi I, Kakimoto K, Suzuki M, Matsui T, Sunagawa T, Takahashi T, Yamagishi T, Samuel A, Nao N, Takayama I, Saito S, Asanuma H, Kageyama T, Okamoto K, Ohnishi M, Wakita T, Linton NM, Yoshii K, Kobayashi T, Mahamud AR, Griffith MM. Epidemiology of COVID-19 outbreak on cruise ship quarantined at Yokohama, Japan, February 2020. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020;26(11):2591-2597. doi:10.3201/eid2611.201165

  25. Nishiura H, Kobayashi T, Miyama T, Suzuki A, Jung S-m, Hayashi K, Kinoshita R, Yang Y, Yuan B, Akhmetzhanov AR, Linton NM. Estimation of the asymptomatic ratio of novel coronavirus infections (COVID-19). Int J Infect Dis. 2020;94:154–155. doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.03.020

    2017

  26. Bonwitt J, Poel A, DeBolt C, Gonzales E, Lopez A, Routh J, Rietberg K, Linton NM, Reggin J, Sejvar JJ, Lindquist S, Otten C. Acute flaccid myelitis among children — Washington, September–November 2016. MMWR. 2017;66(31):826-829. doi:10.15585/mmwr.mm6631a2

    2016

  27. Conte KP, Odden MC, Linton NM, Harvey MS. Effectiveness of a scaled-up arthritis self-management program in Oregon: Walk with ease. Am J Public Health. 2016;106(12). doi:10.2105/AJPH.2016.303478

  28. Kawakami VM, Bottichio L, Angelo K, Linton NM, Kissler B, Basler C, Lloyd J, Inouye W, Gonzales E, Rietberg K, Melius B, Wise ME, Sinatra J, Marsland P, Li Zhen, Meek R, Kay M, Duchin J, Lindquist S. Outbreak of multidrug-resistant Salmonella infections linked to pork—Washington, 2015. MMWR. 2016;65(14);379–381. doi:10.15585/mmwr.mm6514a4

  29. Biswas T, Islam MS, Linton NM, Rawal LB. Socio-economic inequality of chronic non-communicable diseases in Bangladesh. PLoS One. 2016;11(11). doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0167140

Peer-reviewed publications | Preprints | Government reports | Other scientific writing | Book contributions

Preprints

2024
Park SW, Akhmetzhanov AR, Charniga K, Cori A, Davies NG, Dushoff J, Funk S, Gostic K, Grenfell B, Linton NM, Lipsitch M, Lison A, Overton CE, Ward T, Abbott S. Estimating epidemiological delay distributions for infectious diseases. medRxiv. 2024. doi:10.1101/2024.01.12.24301247 

**2021**<br> Piantham C, <u>Linton NM</u>, Nishiura H, Ito K. Estimating the elevated transmissibility of the B.1.1.7 strain over previously circulating strains in England using GISAID sequence frequencies. <i>medRxiv</i>. 2021. [doi:10.1101/2020.07.12.199760](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.17.21253775v4) <br><br>

**2020**<br> Akhmetzhanov AR, <u>Linton NM</u>, Nishiura H. Rising evidence of COVID-19 transmission potential to and between animals: do we need to be concerned? <i>medRxiv</i>. 2020. [doi:10.1101/2020.05.21.20109041](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.21.20109041v1) <br><br> Akhmetzhanov AR, Lee HJ, Jung S-m, <u>Linton NM</u>, Yang Y, Yuan B, Nishiura H. Reconstruction and analysis of the transmission network of African swine fever in People’s Republic of China, August 2018–September 2019. <i>bioRxiv</i>. 2020. [doi:10.1101/2020.07.12.199760](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.12.199760v1) <br>

Peer-reviewed publications | Preprints | Government reports | Other scientific writing | Book contributions

Government reports

Estimating the effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccine BNT162b2 (Pfizer/BioNTech) by applying a mathematical model to surveillance data (Version 1). September 2021. Collaborator. National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Japan [In Japanese]

Quantitative evaluation of the effects of priority measures for the prevention of spread of infectious diseases and emergency declarations on the epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 (Provisional Version). June 2021. Contributing author. National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Japan [In Japanese]

Epidemiologic profile of viral hepatitis C in Washington State. June 2016. Washington State Department of Health. Lead contributor; designer and editor. DOH 420-159.

Other scientific writing

Linton NM, Nishiura H. Key characteristics of COVID-19 as revealed by patterns of secondary infection. Jikken Igaku. 2021;39(2). [In Japanese]

Linton NM, Nishiura H. Mathematics behind the end of epidemics. Suugaku Seminar. 2020;9. [In Japanese]

Book contributions

Nishiura H, Kobayashi T, Anzai A, Aihara K, Linton NM. Mathematical modeling of infectious disease epidemics. Nippyo, 2022. ISBN-13: 978-4535787599 [In Japanese]

Nishiura H. An introduction to data analysis for infectious disease epidemiology. Kinpodo, 2021. Co-author for chapters 2 and 11. ISBN-13: 978-4765318822. [In Japanese]

Students of The Gary and Jerri-Ann Jacobs High Tech High. San Diego Bay: A Story of Exploitation and Restoration. Eds. Natalie Linton, Gwen Michael-Jones. San Diego: California Sea Grant College Program, 2007. ISBN-10: 1888691174.